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Aigle Royal vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
4/16/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 20Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aigle Royal42%
×Draw30%
Stade Renard28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.19
Stade Renard
0.92

Aigle Royal creates 29% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 96 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.30
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.95
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
72%
Aigle Royal or Stade Renard
70%
Draw or Stade Renard
58%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
18%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
70%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
33%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
12%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
60%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
23%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
60%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.30 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Aigle Royal defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
42%
level
30%
Stade Renard scores more
28%

Aigle Royal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aigle Royal vs Stade Renard

Aigle Royal beat Stade Renard 1-0 in Elite One on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.