Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aigle Royal vs Stade de Bertoua — Elite Two 2020

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
CANC
14:00
Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
4/12/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aigle Royal52%
×Draw27%
Stade de Bertoua21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.44
Stade de Bertoua
0.80

Aigle Royal creates 80% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.50
Stade de Bertoua
0.72

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.89
Stade de Bertoua
1.39

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Stade de Bertoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
79%
Aigle Royal or Stade de Bertoua
73%
Draw or Stade de Bertoua
48%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
26%
Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
76%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
42%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
18%
Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
55%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
19%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
71%
Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.50 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Aigle Royal defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
52%
level
27%
Stade de Bertoua scores more
21%

Aigle Royal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Aigle Royal host Stade de Bertoua

April 12, 2022: Aigle Royal take on Stade de Bertoua in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.