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Aigle Royal vs Les Astres — Elite One 2019

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Les Astres
Les Astres
12/6/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 10Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aigle Royal44%
×Draw28%
Les Astres28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.31
Les Astres
0.99

Aigle Royal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 75 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.30
Les Astres
1.03

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.95
Les Astres
1.31

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
72%
Aigle Royal or Les Astres
72%
Draw or Les Astres
56%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
20%
Les Astres wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
73%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
38%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
14%
Les Astres 1+ goals
63%
Les Astres 2+ goals
26%
Les Astres 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
61%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.30 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Aigle Royal defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
44%
level
28%
Les Astres scores more
28%

Aigle Royal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aigle Royal vs Les Astres

Aigle Royal beat Les Astres 2-0 in Elite One on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.