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Aigle Royal vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
4/26/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 15Bamendzi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aigle Royal44%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.34
Fortuna Mfou
1.02

Aigle Royal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 96 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.30
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.95
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
72%
Aigle Royal or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
56%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
20%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
74%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
39%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
15%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
64%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
27%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
61%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.30 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Aigle Royal defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
44%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
28%

Aigle Royal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Aigle Royal 4–0 Fortuna Mfou

Aigle Royal beat Fortuna Mfou 4-0 in Elite One on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Bamendzi Stadium in Bafoussam.