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Aigle Royal vs Feutcheu — Elite One 2019

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
FT
2 – 1
Feutcheu
Feutcheu
11/2/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 4Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Aigle Royal39%
×Draw29%
Feutcheu32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.15
Feutcheu
1.01

Aigle Royal creates 14% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 56 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.28
Feutcheu
1.05

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.97
Feutcheu
1.02

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
Feutcheu+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Feutcheu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
68%
Aigle Royal or Feutcheu
71%
Draw or Feutcheu
61%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
16%
Feutcheu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
68%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
32%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
11%
Feutcheu 1+ goals
64%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
27%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
55%
Feutcheu (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Feutcheu away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.28 + Feutcheu defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Feutcheu attack 1.05 + Aigle Royal defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
39%
level
29%
Feutcheu scores more
32%

Aigle Royal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aigle Royal vs Feutcheu

Aigle Royal beat Feutcheu 2-1 in Elite One on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.