Aigle Royal 1–0 Cotonsport: Result & Stats

Aigle Royal

FT

1 – 0

Cotonsport

3/2/2016

Elite One · Round 6Stade du CENAJES (Dschang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Aigle Royal37%

×Draw30%

Cotonsport33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aigle RoyalExpected goals in this matchCotonsport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.02

Aigle Royal

1.08

Cotonsport

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 104 away

1.29

creates per match

1.10

0.93

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Aigle Royal

1.29

Cotonsport

1.10

allows per match

Aigle Royal

0.93

Cotonsport

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Cotonsport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Cotonsport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw

67%

Aigle Royal or Cotonsport

70%

Draw or Cotonsport

63%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

15%

Cotonsport wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

66%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

29%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

10%

Cotonsport 1+ goals

64%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

27%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

52%

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

Cotonsport away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + Cotonsport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cotonsport attack 1.10 + Aigle Royal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aigle Royal scores more

37%

level

30%

Cotonsport scores more

33%

Aigle Royal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff