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Aigle Royal vs APEJES Academy — Elite One 2019

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
4/11/2024Elite OneElite One · Relegation Round - 4Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aigle Royal43%
×Draw28%
APEJES Academy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.27
APEJES Academy
0.98

Aigle Royal creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 67 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.30
APEJES Academy
1.01

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.95
APEJES Academy
1.24

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
71%
Aigle Royal or APEJES Academy
72%
Draw or APEJES Academy
57%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
19%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
72%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
36%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
14%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
62%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
26%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
60%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.30 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Aigle Royal defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
43%
level
28%
APEJES Academy scores more
29%

Aigle Royal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aigle Royal vs APEJES Academy

Aigle Royal beat APEJES Academy 4-2 in Elite One on April 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.