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Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Young Sport Academy — Elite One 2019

Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
3/2/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 14Stade Municipal de Mélong

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo38%
×Draw30%
Young Sport Academy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.10
Young Sport Academy
1.00

Aigle Royal de Moungo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 79 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
0.89
Young Sport Academy
0.94

allows per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.07
Young Sport Academy
1.32

finishing

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par
Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓

Young Sport Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aigle Royal de Moungo or draw
68%
Aigle Royal de Moungo or Young Sport Academy
70%
Draw or Young Sport Academy
62%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
15%
Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
67%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
30%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
10%
Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
63%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
26%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
54%
Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Young Sport Academy away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 0.89 + Young Sport Academy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Young Sport Academy attack 0.94 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
38%
level
30%
Young Sport Academy scores more
32%

Aigle Royal de Moungo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aigle Royal de Moungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Aigle Royal de Moungo 0–0 Young Sport Academy

Aigle Royal de Moungo and Young Sport Academy drew 0-0 in Elite One on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mélong in Mélong.