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Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Tonnerre — Elite Two 2020

Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
FT
2 – 0
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
12/26/2022Elite TwoElite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo47%
×Draw26%
Tonnerre27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.47
Tonnerre
1.03

Aigle Royal de Moungo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 42 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.57
Tonnerre
1.02

allows per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.04
Tonnerre
1.36

finishing

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Aigle Royal de Moungo or draw
73%
Aigle Royal de Moungo or Tonnerre
74%
Draw or Tonnerre
53%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
23%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
77%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
43%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
18%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
64%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
28%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
64%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.57 + Tonnerre defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Tonnerre attack 1.02 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
47%
level
26%
Tonnerre scores more
27%

Aigle Royal de Moungo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aigle Royal de Moungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Tonnerre

Aigle Royal de Moungo beat Tonnerre 2-0 in Elite Two on December 26, 2022.