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Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Stade de Bertoua — Elite Two 2020

Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
FT
3 – 0
Stade de Bertoua
Stade de Bertoua
4/12/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo51%
×Draw26%
Stade de Bertoua22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.48
Stade de Bertoua
0.88

Aigle Royal de Moungo creates 68% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.57
Stade de Bertoua
0.72

allows per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.04
Stade de Bertoua
1.39

finishing

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par
Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓

Stade de Bertoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Aigle Royal de Moungo or draw
78%
Aigle Royal de Moungo or Stade de Bertoua
74%
Draw or Stade de Bertoua
49%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
26%
Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
77%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
43%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
19%
Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals
59%
Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals
22%
Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
70%
Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.57 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
51%
level
26%
Stade de Bertoua scores more
22%

Aigle Royal de Moungo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aigle Royal de Moungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Aigle Royal de Moungo 3–0 Stade de Bertoua

Aigle Royal de Moungo beat Stade de Bertoua 3-0 in Elite Two on April 12, 2023.