Aigle Royal de Moungo 1–0 OFTA: Result & Stats

Aigle Royal de Moungo

FT

1 – 0

OFTA

1/11/2023

Elite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo54%

×Draw26%

OFTA20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aigle Royal de MoungoExpected goals in this matchOFTA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.82

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.54

OFTA

0.82

Aigle Royal de Moungo creates 88% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

1.57

creates per match

0.60

1.04

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.57

OFTA

0.60

allows per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.04

OFTA

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

OFTA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓

OFTA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aigle Royal de Moungo or draw

80%

Aigle Royal de Moungo or OFTA

74%

Draw or OFTA

46%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+

28%

OFTA wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals

79%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals

45%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals

20%

OFTA 1+ goals

56%

OFTA 2+ goals

20%

OFTA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)

73%

OFTA (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

OFTA away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.57 + OFTA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

OFTA attack 0.60 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more

54%

level

26%

OFTA scores more

20%

Aigle Royal de Moungo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Aigle Royal de Moungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff