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Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Fauve Azur Elite — Elite One 2019

Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fauve Azur Elite
Fauve Azur Elite
1/26/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 9Stade Municipal de Mélong

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo38%
×Draw33%
Fauve Azur Elite30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal de Moungo
0.98
Fauve Azur Elite
0.83

Aigle Royal de Moungo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 15 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
0.89
Fauve Azur Elite
0.60

allows per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.07
Fauve Azur Elite
1.07

finishing

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par
Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aigle Royal de Moungo or draw
70%
Aigle Royal de Moungo or Fauve Azur Elite
67%
Draw or Fauve Azur Elite
62%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
14%
Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
62%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
26%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
8%
Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals
56%
Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals
20%
Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
56%
Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 0.89 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
38%
level
33%
Fauve Azur Elite scores more
30%

Aigle Royal de Moungo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aigle Royal de Moungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Aigle Royal de Moungo 2–0 Fauve Azur Elite

Aigle Royal de Moungo beat Fauve Azur Elite 2-0 in Elite One on January 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mélong in Mélong.