Aigle Royal de Moungo 2–0 Canon: Result & Stats

Aigle Royal de Moungo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Canon

2/23/2025

Elite One · Round 13Stade de Bonamoussadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo30%

×Draw30%

Canon40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aigle Royal de MoungoExpected goals in this matchCanon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.13

Aigle Royal de Moungo

0.94

Canon

1.13

Canon creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 88 away

0.89

creates per match

1.18

1.07

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo

0.89

Canon

1.18

allows per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo

1.07

Canon

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

Canon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓

Canon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Aigle Royal de Moungo or draw

60%

Aigle Royal de Moungo or Canon

70%

Draw or Canon

70%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+

11%

Canon wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals

61%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals

24%

Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals

7%

Canon 1+ goals

68%

Canon 2+ goals

31%

Canon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)

43%

Canon (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Canon away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.98 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 0.89 + Canon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Canon attack 1.18 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more

30%

level

30%

Canon scores more

40%

Canon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Canon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff