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Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Bamboutos — Elite One 2019

Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bamboutos
Bamboutos
4/6/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 18Stade de Bonamoussadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo32%
×Draw30%
Bamboutos38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal de Moungo
0.97
Bamboutos
1.08

Bamboutos creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 74 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
0.89
Bamboutos
1.08

allows per match

Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.07
Bamboutos
1.05

finishing

Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par
Bamboutos+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal de Moungo ↓

Bamboutos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Aigle Royal de Moungo or draw
62%
Aigle Royal de Moungo or Bamboutos
70%
Draw or Bamboutos
68%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
12%
Bamboutos wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
62%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
25%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
7%
Bamboutos 1+ goals
66%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
29%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
46%
Bamboutos (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal de Moungo at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Bamboutos away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 0.89 + Bamboutos defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Bamboutos attack 1.08 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
32%
level
30%
Bamboutos scores more
38%

Bamboutos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aigle Royal de Moungo vs Bamboutos

Aigle Royal de Moungo beat Bamboutos 2-1 in Elite One on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Bonamoussadi in Douala.