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Aigle Noir vs Al Ahly — CAF Champions League 2019

Aigle Noir
Aigle Noir
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Ahly
Al Ahly
K. Iragi 36' (OG)
10/18/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aigle Noir14%
×Draw42%
Al Ahly44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Noir
0.31
Al Ahly
0.79

Al Ahly creates 155% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 45 away

creates per match

Aigle Noir
0.00
Al Ahly
1.24

allows per match

Aigle Noir
0.33
Al Ahly
0.62

finishing

Aigle Noir+0.00on par
Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Under
  • Under90
  • Over10

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Noir ↓

Al Ahly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–033%
0–126%
0–210%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–11%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (33%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
67%33%1.5
30%70%2.5
10%90%3.5
3%97%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Aigle Noir or draw
56%
Aigle Noir or Al Ahly
58%
Draw or Al Ahly
86%

Winning margin

Aigle Noir wins by 2+
2%
Al Ahly wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aigle Noir 1+ goals
27%
Aigle Noir 2+ goals
4%
Aigle Noir 3+ goals
0%
Al Ahly 1+ goals
55%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
19%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aigle Noir (draw refunded)
23%
Al Ahly (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
6%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Noir at home — creates 0.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Noir attack 0.00 + Al Ahly defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.31

Al Ahly attack 1.24 + Aigle Noir defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aigle Noir scores more
14%
level
42%
Al Ahly scores more
44%

Al Ahly at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
K. IragiOwn goal
Aigle
Al
A. Kanega
Manager: A. Kanega
Jess Thorup
Manager: Jess Thorup

CAF Champions League: Aigle Noir 0–1 Al Ahly

Al Ahly beat Aigle Noir 1-0 in CAF Champions League on October 18, 2025.

Goals: K. Iragi (36' o.g.).