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ÅIFK vs NoPS — Suomen Cup 2018

ÅIFK
ÅIFK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NoPS
NoPS
4/17/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundUrheilupuiston Yläkenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ÅIFK11%
×Draw13%
NoPS76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÅIFK
1.35
NoPS
3.51

NoPS creates 160% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

ÅIFK
2.00
NoPS
4.43

allows per match

ÅIFK
2.60
NoPS
0.71

finishing

ÅIFK+0.00on par
NoPS+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÅIFK ↓

NoPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

ÅIFK or draw
24%
ÅIFK or NoPS
87%
Draw or NoPS
89%

Winning margin

ÅIFK wins by 2+
4%
NoPS wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

ÅIFK 1+ goals
74%
ÅIFK 2+ goals
39%
ÅIFK 3+ goals
15%
NoPS 1+ goals
97%
NoPS 2+ goals
86%
NoPS 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

ÅIFK (draw refunded)
13%
NoPS (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÅIFK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

NoPS away — creates 4.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÅIFK attack 2.00 + NoPS defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

NoPS attack 4.43 + ÅIFK defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

ÅIFK scores more
11%
level
13%
NoPS scores more
76%

NoPS at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "NoPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ÅIFK vs NoPS

ÅIFK beat NoPS 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä in Åbo.