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ÅIFK vs EIF — Suomen Cup 2018

ÅIFK
ÅIFK
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
EIF
EIF
4/25/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundUrheilupuiston Yläkenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ÅIFK23%
×Draw19%
EIF59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ÅIFK
1.58
EIF
2.58

EIF creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

ÅIFK
2.00
EIF
2.56

allows per match

ÅIFK
2.60
EIF
1.17

finishing

ÅIFK+0.00on par
EIF+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ÅIFK ↓

EIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

ÅIFK or draw
41%
ÅIFK or EIF
81%
Draw or EIF
77%

Winning margin

ÅIFK wins by 2+
10%
EIF wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

ÅIFK 1+ goals
79%
ÅIFK 2+ goals
47%
ÅIFK 3+ goals
21%
EIF 1+ goals
92%
EIF 2+ goals
72%
EIF 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

ÅIFK (draw refunded)
28%
EIF (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ÅIFK at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

EIF away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ÅIFK attack 2.00 + EIF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

EIF attack 2.56 + ÅIFK defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

ÅIFK scores more
23%
level
19%
EIF scores more
59%

EIF at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "EIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ÅIFK 0 – 4 EIF

EIF beat ÅIFK 4-0 in Suomen Cup on April 25, 2023.

The match was played at Urheilupuiston Yläkenttä in Åbo.