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Ahrweiler BC vs TuS Kirchberg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
FT
6 – 0
TuS Kirchberg
TuS Kirchberg
12/3/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 19Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ahrweiler BC57%
×Draw19%
TuS Kirchberg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrweiler BC
2.45
TuS Kirchberg
1.55

Ahrweiler BC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC
1.60
TuS Kirchberg
0.70

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC
2.40
TuS Kirchberg
3.30

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par
TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

TuS Kirchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw
76%
Ahrweiler BC or TuS Kirchberg
81%
Draw or TuS Kirchberg
43%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
36%
TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
91%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
70%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
44%
TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals
79%
TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals
46%
TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
71%
TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

TuS Kirchberg away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.60 + TuS Kirchberg defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.45

TuS Kirchberg attack 0.70 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more
57%
level
19%
TuS Kirchberg scores more
24%

Ahrweiler BC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ahrweiler BC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Ahrweiler BC 6–0 TuS Kirchberg

Ahrweiler BC beat TuS Kirchberg 6-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Heimersheim Kunstrasen in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler.