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Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Prykarpattia — Persha Liga 2019

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Prykarpattia
Prykarpattia
10/19/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 13Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Ahrobiznes Volochysk51%
×Draw26%
Prykarpattia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.51
Prykarpattia
0.92

Ahrobiznes Volochysk creates 64% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 91 away

creates per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.46
Prykarpattia
1.11

allows per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.72
Prykarpattia
1.56

finishing

Ahrobiznes Volochysk+0.00on par
Prykarpattia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrobiznes Volochysk ↓

Prykarpattia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ahrobiznes Volochysk or draw
77%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Prykarpattia
74%
Draw or Prykarpattia
49%

Winning margin

Ahrobiznes Volochysk wins by 2+
26%
Prykarpattia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1+ goals
78%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2+ goals
44%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3+ goals
19%
Prykarpattia 1+ goals
60%
Prykarpattia 2+ goals
23%
Prykarpattia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ahrobiznes Volochysk (draw refunded)
69%
Prykarpattia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

Prykarpattia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk attack 1.46 + Prykarpattia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.51

Prykarpattia attack 1.11 + Ahrobiznes Volochysk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ahrobiznes Volochysk scores more
51%
level
26%
Prykarpattia scores more
23%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ahrobiznes Volochysk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Ahrobiznes Volochysk 0–1 Prykarpattia

Prykarpattia beat Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1-0 in Persha Liga on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Yunist in Volochysk.