Ahrobiznes Volochysk 0–1 Nyva Ternopil

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nyva Ternopil

11/9/2024

Persha Liga · Round 16Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Ahrobiznes Volochysk50%

×Draw27%

Nyva Ternopil23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ahrobiznes VolochyskExpected goals in this matchNyva Ternopil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.85

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.40

Nyva Ternopil

0.85

Ahrobiznes Volochysk creates 65% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 77 away

1.46

creates per match

0.99

0.72

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.46

Nyva Ternopil

0.99

allows per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

0.72

Nyva Ternopil

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ahrobiznes Volochysk+0.00on par

Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrobiznes Volochysk ↓

Nyva Ternopil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ahrobiznes Volochysk or draw

77%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Nyva Ternopil

73%

Draw or Nyva Ternopil

50%

Winning margin

Ahrobiznes Volochysk wins by 2+

24%

Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1+ goals

75%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2+ goals

41%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3+ goals

17%

Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals

57%

Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals

21%

Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ahrobiznes Volochysk (draw refunded)

69%

Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

Nyva Ternopil away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk attack 1.46 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nyva Ternopil attack 0.99 + Ahrobiznes Volochysk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ahrobiznes Volochysk scores more

50%

level

27%

Nyva Ternopil scores more

23%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ahrobiznes Volochysk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff