Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3–0 Bukovyna: Result & Stats

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bukovyna

11/18/2023

Persha Liga · Round 17Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ahrobiznes Volochysk39%

×Draw28%

Bukovyna33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ahrobiznes VolochyskExpected goals in this matchBukovyna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.11

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.25

Bukovyna

1.11

Ahrobiznes Volochysk creates 13% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

1.46

creates per match

1.51

0.72

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

1.46

Bukovyna

1.51

allows per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk

0.72

Bukovyna

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ahrobiznes Volochysk+0.00on par

Bukovyna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrobiznes Volochysk ↓

Bukovyna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ahrobiznes Volochysk or draw

67%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Bukovyna

72%

Draw or Bukovyna

61%

Winning margin

Ahrobiznes Volochysk wins by 2+

17%

Bukovyna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1+ goals

71%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2+ goals

36%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3+ goals

13%

Bukovyna 1+ goals

67%

Bukovyna 2+ goals

30%

Bukovyna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ahrobiznes Volochysk (draw refunded)

55%

Bukovyna (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

Bukovyna away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk attack 1.46 + Bukovyna defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bukovyna attack 1.51 + Ahrobiznes Volochysk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ahrobiznes Volochysk scores more

39%

level

28%

Bukovyna scores more

33%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ahrobiznes Volochysk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff