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Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Persha Liga 2019

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
CANC
14:00
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
4/23/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 26Stadion Yunist'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ahrobiznes Volochysk41%
×Draw27%
Alians Lypova Dolyna32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.31
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.12

Ahrobiznes Volochysk creates 17% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 25 away

creates per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.46
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.52

allows per match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.72
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.16

finishing

Ahrobiznes Volochysk+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrobiznes Volochysk ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ahrobiznes Volochysk or draw
68%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk or Alians Lypova Dolyna
73%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
59%

Winning margin

Ahrobiznes Volochysk wins by 2+
19%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1+ goals
73%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 2+ goals
38%
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 3+ goals
14%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
67%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
31%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ahrobiznes Volochysk (draw refunded)
56%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrobiznes Volochysk attack 1.46 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Ahrobiznes Volochysk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ahrobiznes Volochysk scores more
41%
level
27%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
32%

Ahrobiznes Volochysk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ahrobiznes Volochysk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ahrobiznes Volochysk vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Match Preview

Ahrobiznes Volochysk face Alians Lypova Dolyna on April 23, 2022 in this Persha Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ahrobiznes Volochysk host Alians Lypova Dolyna at Stadion Yunist'.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.