Ahly Sfaxien 0–1 ES Sahel: Result & Stats | Cup

Ahly Sfaxien

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ES Sahel

S. Barhoumi 72'

5/18/2024

Cup · Round of 16Stade de la Cité El Habib

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ahly Sfaxien21%

×Draw31%

ES Sahel48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ahly SfaxienExpected goals in this matchES Sahel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

1.19

Ahly Sfaxien

0.69

ES Sahel

1.19

ES Sahel creates 72% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

0.75

creates per match

1.63

0.75

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Ahly Sfaxien

0.75

ES Sahel

1.63

allows per match

Ahly Sfaxien

0.75

ES Sahel

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ahly Sfaxien+0.00on par

ES Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahly Sfaxien ↓

ES Sahel →

0–015%

0–118%

0–211%

0–34%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ahly Sfaxien or draw

52%

Ahly Sfaxien or ES Sahel

69%

Draw or ES Sahel

79%

Winning margin

Ahly Sfaxien wins by 2+

ES Sahel wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ahly Sfaxien 1+ goals

50%

Ahly Sfaxien 2+ goals

15%

Ahly Sfaxien 3+ goals

ES Sahel 1+ goals

70%

ES Sahel 2+ goals

33%

ES Sahel 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ahly Sfaxien (draw refunded)

31%

ES Sahel (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ahly Sfaxien at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

ES Sahel away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ahly Sfaxien attack 0.75 + ES Sahel defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

ES Sahel attack 1.63 + Ahly Sfaxien defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ahly Sfaxien scores more

21%

level

31%

ES Sahel scores more

48%

ES Sahel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ES Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'

S. Barhoumi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff