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Ahlafors vs Yxhult — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Ahlafors
Ahlafors
FT
4 – 0
Yxhult
Yxhult
4/30/2022Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 5Svenska Stenhus Arena 1 Gräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Ahlafors54%
×Draw21%
Yxhult25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahlafors
2.17
Yxhult
1.42

Ahlafors creates 53% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 40 away

creates per match

Ahlafors
2.25
Yxhult
1.60

allows per match

Ahlafors
1.24
Yxhult
2.08

finishing

Ahlafors+0.00on par
Yxhult+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahlafors ↓

Yxhult →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ahlafors or draw
75%
Ahlafors or Yxhult
79%
Draw or Yxhult
46%

Winning margin

Ahlafors wins by 2+
33%
Yxhult wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ahlafors 1+ goals
89%
Ahlafors 2+ goals
64%
Ahlafors 3+ goals
36%
Yxhult 1+ goals
76%
Yxhult 2+ goals
41%
Yxhult 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ahlafors (draw refunded)
69%
Yxhult (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahlafors at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Yxhult away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahlafors attack 2.25 + Yxhult defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.17

Yxhult attack 1.60 + Ahlafors defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ahlafors scores more
54%
level
21%
Yxhult scores more
25%

Ahlafors at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ahlafors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Ahlafors 4–0 Yxhult

Ahlafors beat Yxhult 4-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Svenska Stenhus Arena 1 Gräs in Alafors.