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Ahlafors vs Sifhälla — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Ahlafors
Ahlafors
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sifhälla
Sifhälla
9/17/2022Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 22Svenska Stenhus Arena 1 Gräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ahlafors45%
×Draw24%
Sifhälla32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahlafors
1.70
Sifhälla
1.39

Ahlafors creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ahlafors
2.25
Sifhälla
1.54

allows per match

Ahlafors
1.24
Sifhälla
1.15

finishing

Ahlafors+0.00on par
Sifhälla+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahlafors ↓

Sifhälla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ahlafors or draw
68%
Ahlafors or Sifhälla
76%
Draw or Sifhälla
55%

Winning margin

Ahlafors wins by 2+
24%
Sifhälla wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ahlafors 1+ goals
82%
Ahlafors 2+ goals
51%
Ahlafors 3+ goals
24%
Sifhälla 1+ goals
75%
Sifhälla 2+ goals
40%
Sifhälla 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ahlafors (draw refunded)
59%
Sifhälla (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahlafors at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Sifhälla away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahlafors attack 2.25 + Sifhälla defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sifhälla attack 1.54 + Ahlafors defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ahlafors scores more
45%
level
24%
Sifhälla scores more
32%

Ahlafors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ahlafors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahlafors vs Sifhälla

Ahlafors beat Sifhälla 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Svenska Stenhus Arena 1 Gräs in Alafors.