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Ahlafors vs Oddevold — Ettan - Södra 2019

Ahlafors
Ahlafors
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Oddevold
Oddevold
4/15/2023Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 3Svenska Stenhus Arena 1 Gräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ahlafors27%
×Draw29%
Oddevold44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahlafors
0.90
Oddevold
1.25

Oddevold creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ahlafors
0.80
Oddevold
1.38

allows per match

Ahlafors
1.13
Oddevold
1.00

finishing

Ahlafors+0.00on par
Oddevold+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahlafors ↓

Oddevold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ahlafors or draw
56%
Ahlafors or Oddevold
71%
Draw or Oddevold
73%

Winning margin

Ahlafors wins by 2+
9%
Oddevold wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ahlafors 1+ goals
59%
Ahlafors 2+ goals
23%
Ahlafors 3+ goals
6%
Oddevold 1+ goals
71%
Oddevold 2+ goals
36%
Oddevold 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ahlafors (draw refunded)
38%
Oddevold (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahlafors at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Oddevold away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahlafors attack 0.80 + Oddevold defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Oddevold attack 1.38 + Ahlafors defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ahlafors scores more
27%
level
29%
Oddevold scores more
44%

Oddevold at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oddevold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Ahlafors 1–2 Oddevold

Oddevold beat Ahlafors 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Svenska Stenhus Arena 1 Gräs in Alafors.