Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ahironas / Onisilos vs Apoel Nicosia — Cup 2019

Ahironas / Onisilos
Ahironas / Onisilos
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
10/11/2022CupCup · 1st RoundStadio Ammochostos Epistrofi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ahironas / Onisilos7%
×Draw18%
Apoel Nicosia75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahironas / Onisilos
0.45
Apoel Nicosia
2.06

Apoel Nicosia creates 358% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ahironas / Onisilos
0.00
Apoel Nicosia
1.78

allows per match

Ahironas / Onisilos
2.33
Apoel Nicosia
0.89

finishing

Ahironas / Onisilos+0.00on par
Apoel Nicosia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahironas / Onisilos ↓

Apoel Nicosia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–117%
0–217%
0–312%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ahironas / Onisilos or draw
25%
Ahironas / Onisilos or Apoel Nicosia
82%
Draw or Apoel Nicosia
93%

Winning margin

Ahironas / Onisilos wins by 2+
1%
Apoel Nicosia wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Ahironas / Onisilos 1+ goals
36%
Ahironas / Onisilos 2+ goals
8%
Ahironas / Onisilos 3+ goals
1%
Apoel Nicosia 1+ goals
87%
Apoel Nicosia 2+ goals
61%
Apoel Nicosia 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Ahironas / Onisilos (draw refunded)
8%
Apoel Nicosia (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahironas / Onisilos at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Apoel Nicosia away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahironas / Onisilos attack 0.00 + Apoel Nicosia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.45

Apoel Nicosia attack 1.78 + Ahironas / Onisilos defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Ahironas / Onisilos scores more
7%
level
18%
Apoel Nicosia scores more
75%

Apoel Nicosia at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Apoel Nicosia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahironas / Onisilos vs Apoel Nicosia

Apoel Nicosia beat Ahironas / Onisilos 3-0 in Cup on October 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Ammochostos Epistrofi in Larnaca.