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AHFC Royals vs Texas United — USL League Two 2018

AHFC Royals
AHFC Royals
FT
2 – 2
Texas United
Texas United
5/29/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 12Campbell Road Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

AHFC Royals39%
×Draw21%
Texas United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AHFC Royals
2.02
Texas United
2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 24 away

creates per match

AHFC Royals
2.50
Texas United
2.50

allows per match

AHFC Royals
1.60
Texas United
1.54

finishing

AHFC Royals+0.00on par
Texas United+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AHFC Royals ↓

Texas United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

AHFC Royals or draw
60%
AHFC Royals or Texas United
79%
Draw or Texas United
61%

Winning margin

AHFC Royals wins by 2+
21%
Texas United wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

AHFC Royals 1+ goals
87%
AHFC Royals 2+ goals
60%
AHFC Royals 3+ goals
33%
Texas United 1+ goals
87%
Texas United 2+ goals
61%
Texas United 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

AHFC Royals (draw refunded)
49%
Texas United (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AHFC Royals at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

Texas United away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AHFC Royals attack 2.50 + Texas United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.02

Texas United attack 2.50 + AHFC Royals defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AHFC Royals scores more
39%
level
21%
Texas United scores more
40%

Texas United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Texas United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: AHFC Royals 2–2 Texas United

AHFC Royals and Texas United drew 2-2 in USL League Two on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Campbell Road Sports Park in Houston, Texas.