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AHFC Royals vs Round Rock — USL League Two 2018

AHFC Royals
AHFC Royals
FT
2 – 2
Round Rock
Round Rock
5/20/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 6Campbell Road Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AHFC Royals66%
×Draw17%
Round Rock18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AHFC Royals
2.83
Round Rock
1.43

AHFC Royals creates 98% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 20 away

creates per match

AHFC Royals
2.50
Round Rock
1.25

allows per match

AHFC Royals
1.60
Round Rock
3.15

finishing

AHFC Royals+0.00on par
Round Rock+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AHFC Royals ↓

Round Rock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

AHFC Royals or draw
82%
AHFC Royals or Round Rock
83%
Draw or Round Rock
34%

Winning margin

AHFC Royals wins by 2+
45%
Round Rock wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AHFC Royals 1+ goals
94%
AHFC Royals 2+ goals
77%
AHFC Royals 3+ goals
53%
Round Rock 1+ goals
76%
Round Rock 2+ goals
42%
Round Rock 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AHFC Royals (draw refunded)
79%
Round Rock (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AHFC Royals at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

Round Rock away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AHFC Royals attack 2.50 + Round Rock defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.83

Round Rock attack 1.25 + AHFC Royals defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

AHFC Royals scores more
66%
level
17%
Round Rock scores more
18%

AHFC Royals at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "AHFC Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: AHFC Royals 2–2 Round Rock

AHFC Royals and Round Rock drew 2-2 in USL League Two on May 20, 2021.

The match was played at Campbell Road Sports Park in Houston, Texas.