Ahal 1–1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: Result & Stats

Ahal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

4/7/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ahal44%

×Draw26%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AhalExpected goals in this matchShabab Al Ahli Dubai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.19

Ahal

1.47

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.19

Ahal creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

1.33

creates per match

1.22

1.17

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Ahal

1.33

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.22

allows per match

Ahal

1.17

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ahal+0.00on par

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahal ↓

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ahal or draw

69%

Ahal or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

74%

Draw or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

56%

Winning margin

Ahal wins by 2+

21%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ahal 1+ goals

77%

Ahal 2+ goals

43%

Ahal 3+ goals

18%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1+ goals

70%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2+ goals

33%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ahal (draw refunded)

59%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahal at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahal attack 1.33 + Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.47

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.22 + Ahal defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ahal scores more

44%

level

26%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai scores more

31%

Ahal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff