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Ahal vs Merw — Ýokary Liga 2020

Ahal
Ahal
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Merw
Merw
12/4/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ahal70%
×Draw19%
Merw12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahal
2.17
Merw
0.76

Ahal creates 186% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Ahal
2.23
Merw
0.73

allows per match

Ahal
0.79
Merw
2.12

finishing

Ahal+0.00on par
Merw+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahal ↓

Merw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ahal or draw
88%
Ahal or Merw
81%
Draw or Merw
30%

Winning margin

Ahal wins by 2+
45%
Merw wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ahal 1+ goals
89%
Ahal 2+ goals
64%
Ahal 3+ goals
36%
Merw 1+ goals
53%
Merw 2+ goals
18%
Merw 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ahal (draw refunded)
85%
Merw (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahal at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.79 · 84 matches

Merw away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.12 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahal attack 2.23 + Merw defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.17

Merw attack 0.73 + Ahal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ahal scores more
70%
level
19%
Merw scores more
12%

Ahal at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Ahal 4–0 Merw

Ahal beat Merw 4-0 in Ýokary Liga on December 4, 2025.