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Ahal vs Köpetdag Aşgabat — Ýokary Liga 2020

Ahal
Ahal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Köpetdag Aşgabat
Köpetdag Aşgabat
10/16/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ahal63%
×Draw21%
Köpetdag Aşgabat17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahal
2.05
Köpetdag Aşgabat
0.94

Ahal creates 118% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 86 away

creates per match

Ahal
2.23
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.09

allows per match

Ahal
0.79
Köpetdag Aşgabat
1.87

finishing

Ahal+0.00on par
Köpetdag Aşgabat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahal ↓

Köpetdag Aşgabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ahal or draw
83%
Ahal or Köpetdag Aşgabat
79%
Draw or Köpetdag Aşgabat
37%

Winning margin

Ahal wins by 2+
39%
Köpetdag Aşgabat wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ahal 1+ goals
87%
Ahal 2+ goals
61%
Ahal 3+ goals
33%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 1+ goals
61%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 2+ goals
24%
Köpetdag Aşgabat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ahal (draw refunded)
79%
Köpetdag Aşgabat (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahal at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.79 · 84 matches

Köpetdag Aşgabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahal attack 2.23 + Köpetdag Aşgabat defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.05

Köpetdag Aşgabat attack 1.09 + Ahal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ahal scores more
63%
level
21%
Köpetdag Aşgabat scores more
17%

Ahal at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Ahal 2–0 Köpetdag Aşgabat

Ahal beat Köpetdag Aşgabat 2-0 in Ýokary Liga on October 16, 2025.