Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ahal vs Istiqlol — AFC Cup 2018

Ahal
Ahal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
5/1/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Aşgabat Stadiony (Aşgabat (Ashgabat))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ahal54%
×Draw23%
Istiqlol23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahal
1.78
Istiqlol
1.08

Ahal creates 65% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ahal
1.40
Istiqlol
1.17

allows per match

Ahal
1.00
Istiqlol
2.17

finishing

Ahal+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahal ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ahal or draw
77%
Ahal or Istiqlol
77%
Draw or Istiqlol
46%

Winning margin

Ahal wins by 2+
30%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ahal 1+ goals
83%
Ahal 2+ goals
53%
Ahal 3+ goals
26%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
66%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
29%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ahal (draw refunded)
70%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahal attack 1.40 + Istiqlol defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.78

Istiqlol attack 1.17 + Ahal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ahal scores more
54%
level
23%
Istiqlol scores more
23%

Ahal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ahal 0 – 1 Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Ahal 1-0 in AFC Cup on May 1, 2018.

The match was played at Aşgabat Stadiony (Aşgabat (Ashgabat)).