Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ahal vs Foolad FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Ahal
Ahal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Foolad FC
Foolad FC
4/18/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ahal37%
×Draw31%
Foolad FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahal
1.02
Foolad FC
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Ahal
1.33
Foolad FC
0.71

allows per match

Ahal
1.17
Foolad FC
0.71

finishing

Ahal+0.00on par
Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahal ↓

Foolad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ahal or draw
68%
Ahal or Foolad FC
69%
Draw or Foolad FC
63%

Winning margin

Ahal wins by 2+
14%
Foolad FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ahal 1+ goals
64%
Ahal 2+ goals
27%
Ahal 3+ goals
8%
Foolad FC 1+ goals
61%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
24%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ahal (draw refunded)
53%
Foolad FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahal at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahal attack 1.33 + Foolad FC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.02

Foolad FC attack 0.71 + Ahal defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ahal scores more
37%
level
31%
Foolad FC scores more
32%

Ahal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ahal 0 – 1 Foolad FC

Foolad FC beat Ahal 1-0 in AFC Champions League on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.