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Ahal vs Arkadag — Ýokary Liga 2020

Ahal
Ahal
FT
0 – 3
Arkadag
Arkadag
6/24/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 9Arkadag Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ahal23%
×Draw20%
Arkadag57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahal
1.42
Arkadag
2.29

Arkadag creates 61% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 47 away

creates per match

Ahal
2.23
Arkadag
3.79

allows per match

Ahal
0.79
Arkadag
0.60

finishing

Ahal+0.00on par
Arkadag+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahal ↓

Arkadag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ahal or draw
43%
Ahal or Arkadag
80%
Draw or Arkadag
77%

Winning margin

Ahal wins by 2+
10%
Arkadag wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Ahal 1+ goals
76%
Ahal 2+ goals
41%
Ahal 3+ goals
17%
Arkadag 1+ goals
90%
Arkadag 2+ goals
66%
Arkadag 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Ahal (draw refunded)
29%
Arkadag (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahal at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.79 · 84 matches

Arkadag away — creates 3.79, concedes 0.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahal attack 2.23 + Arkadag defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Arkadag attack 3.79 + Ahal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ahal scores more
23%
level
20%
Arkadag scores more
57%

Arkadag at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arkadag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Ahal 0–3 Arkadag

Arkadag beat Ahal 3-0 in Ýokary Liga on June 24, 2025.

The match was played at Arkadag Stadiony in Arkadag.