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Ahal vs Altyn Asyr — AFC Cup 2018

Ahal
Ahal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
4/11/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Aşgabat Stadiony (Aşgabat (Ashgabat))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ahal45%
×Draw24%
Altyn Asyr30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahal
1.63
Altyn Asyr
1.29

Ahal creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ahal
1.40
Altyn Asyr
1.57

allows per match

Ahal
1.00
Altyn Asyr
1.86

finishing

Ahal+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahal ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ahal or draw
70%
Ahal or Altyn Asyr
76%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
55%

Winning margin

Ahal wins by 2+
23%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ahal 1+ goals
80%
Ahal 2+ goals
48%
Ahal 3+ goals
22%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
72%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
37%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ahal (draw refunded)
60%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahal attack 1.40 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.63

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Ahal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ahal scores more
45%
level
24%
Altyn Asyr scores more
30%

Ahal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Ahal 0–0 Altyn Asyr

Ahal and Altyn Asyr drew 0-0 in AFC Cup on April 11, 2018.

The match was played at Aşgabat Stadiony (Aşgabat (Ashgabat)).