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Ahal vs Al-Gharafa — AFC Champions League 2018

Ahal
Ahal
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Al-Gharafa
Al-Gharafa
4/26/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ahal62%
×Draw19%
Al-Gharafa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahal
2.27
Al-Gharafa
1.15

Ahal creates 97% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ahal
1.33
Al-Gharafa
1.14

allows per match

Ahal
1.17
Al-Gharafa
3.21

finishing

Ahal+0.00on par
Al-Gharafa+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahal ↓

Al-Gharafa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ahal or draw
82%
Ahal or Al-Gharafa
81%
Draw or Al-Gharafa
38%

Winning margin

Ahal wins by 2+
40%
Al-Gharafa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ahal 1+ goals
90%
Ahal 2+ goals
66%
Ahal 3+ goals
39%
Al-Gharafa 1+ goals
68%
Al-Gharafa 2+ goals
32%
Al-Gharafa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ahal (draw refunded)
77%
Al-Gharafa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahal at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Al-Gharafa away — creates 1.14, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahal attack 1.33 + Al-Gharafa defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.27

Al-Gharafa attack 1.14 + Ahal defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ahal scores more
62%
level
19%
Al-Gharafa scores more
18%

Ahal at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Ahal 4–2 Al-Gharafa

Ahal beat Al-Gharafa 4-2 in AFC Champions League on April 26, 2022.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.