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AH Zapla vs Juventud Antoniana — Torneo Federal A 2018

AH Zapla
AH Zapla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Juventud Antoniana
Juventud Antoniana
10/28/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 10Estadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AH Zapla46%
×Draw31%
Juventud Antoniana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AH Zapla
1.15
Juventud Antoniana
0.70

AH Zapla creates 64% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 78 away

creates per match

AH Zapla
0.92
Juventud Antoniana
0.58

allows per match

AH Zapla
0.83
Juventud Antoniana
1.38

finishing

AH Zapla+0.00on par
Juventud Antoniana+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AH Zapla ↓

Juventud Antoniana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AH Zapla or draw
78%
AH Zapla or Juventud Antoniana
69%
Draw or Juventud Antoniana
54%

Winning margin

AH Zapla wins by 2+
20%
Juventud Antoniana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AH Zapla 1+ goals
68%
AH Zapla 2+ goals
32%
AH Zapla 3+ goals
11%
Juventud Antoniana 1+ goals
50%
Juventud Antoniana 2+ goals
16%
Juventud Antoniana 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

AH Zapla (draw refunded)
67%
Juventud Antoniana (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AH Zapla at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Juventud Antoniana away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.38 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AH Zapla attack 0.92 + Juventud Antoniana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Juventud Antoniana attack 0.58 + AH Zapla defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AH Zapla scores more
46%
level
31%
Juventud Antoniana scores more
22%

AH Zapla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AH Zapla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AH Zapla vs Juventud Antoniana

AH Zapla and Juventud Antoniana drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy).