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AH Zapla vs Chaco For Ever — Torneo Federal A 2018

AH Zapla
AH Zapla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chaco For Ever
Chaco For Ever
10/11/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 7Estadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AH Zapla35%
×Draw32%
Chaco For Ever32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AH Zapla
0.95
Chaco For Ever
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 42 away

creates per match

AH Zapla
0.92
Chaco For Ever
0.95

allows per match

AH Zapla
0.83
Chaco For Ever
0.98

finishing

AH Zapla+0.00on par
Chaco For Ever+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AH Zapla ↓

Chaco For Ever →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

AH Zapla or draw
68%
AH Zapla or Chaco For Ever
68%
Draw or Chaco For Ever
65%

Winning margin

AH Zapla wins by 2+
13%
Chaco For Ever wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AH Zapla 1+ goals
61%
AH Zapla 2+ goals
25%
AH Zapla 3+ goals
7%
Chaco For Ever 1+ goals
59%
Chaco For Ever 2+ goals
22%
Chaco For Ever 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AH Zapla (draw refunded)
52%
Chaco For Ever (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AH Zapla at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Chaco For Ever away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AH Zapla attack 0.92 + Chaco For Ever defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Chaco For Ever attack 0.95 + AH Zapla defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

AH Zapla scores more
35%
level
32%
Chaco For Ever scores more
32%

AH Zapla at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "AH Zapla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: AH Zapla 1–1 Chaco For Ever

AH Zapla and Chaco For Ever drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy).