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Águilas vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Águilas
Águilas
CANC
22:00
SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 38Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Águilas59%
×Draw22%
SFC Minerva19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas
1.89
SFC Minerva
0.96

Águilas creates 97% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 63 away

creates per match

Águilas
2.10
SFC Minerva
1.03

allows per match

Águilas
0.88
SFC Minerva
1.67

finishing

Águilas+0.00on par
SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas ↓

SFC Minerva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Águilas or draw
81%
Águilas or SFC Minerva
78%
Draw or SFC Minerva
41%

Winning margin

Águilas wins by 2+
35%
SFC Minerva wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Águilas 1+ goals
85%
Águilas 2+ goals
56%
Águilas 3+ goals
29%
SFC Minerva 1+ goals
62%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
25%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Águilas (draw refunded)
76%
SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas attack 2.10 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + Águilas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Águilas scores more
59%
level
22%
SFC Minerva scores more
19%

Águilas at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Águilas host SFC Minerva

May 16, 2020: Águilas take on SFC Minerva in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Águilas host SFC Minerva at Estadio El Rubial.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.