Águilas 1–2 Mazarrón FC: Result & Stats

Águilas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Mazarrón FC

Perico 36'

Asensio Miñarro 84'

Albertone Musoni 72'

11/3/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 11Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Águilas53%

×Draw24%

Mazarrón FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ÁguilasExpected goals in this matchMazarrón FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.04

Águilas

1.72

Mazarrón FC

1.04

Águilas creates 65% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 63 away

2.10

creates per match

1.21

0.88

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Águilas

2.10

Mazarrón FC

1.21

allows per match

Águilas

0.88

Mazarrón FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas+0.00on par

Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas ↓

Mazarrón FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Águilas or draw

77%

Águilas or Mazarrón FC

76%

Draw or Mazarrón FC

47%

Winning margin

Águilas wins by 2+

29%

Mazarrón FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Águilas 1+ goals

82%

Águilas 2+ goals

51%

Águilas 3+ goals

25%

Mazarrón FC 1+ goals

65%

Mazarrón FC 2+ goals

28%

Mazarrón FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Águilas (draw refunded)

70%

Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas attack 2.10 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Águilas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Águilas scores more

53%

level

24%

Mazarrón FC scores more

23%

Águilas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

Perico

46'

Diego← Ángel López

69'

Barriles← Cayu

72'

Albertone Musoni

74'

Vicente Meca← Salva Ballesta

77'

Juanan← Perico

77'

Pepe← Albertone Musoni

78'

Francisco Heranz← Iñigo Barrenetxea

84'

Asensio Miñarro

Águilas

Mazarrón

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Perico

David

Manager: Gaspar Campillo

74'▲Vicente Meca←▼Salva Ballesta

77'▲Juanan←▼Perico

78'▲Francisco Heranz←▼Iñigo Barrenetxea

Águilas substitutes

MecaJuananHeranz

Manager: Juanjo Asensio

46'▲Diego←▼Ángel López

69'▲Barriles←▼Cayu

77'▲Pepe←▼Albertone Musoni

Mazarrón FC substitutes

DiegoBarrilesPepe