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Águilas vs Lorca FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Águilas
Águilas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lorca FC
Lorca FC
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Águilas52%
×Draw26%
Lorca FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas
1.55
Lorca FC
0.91

Águilas creates 70% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

creates per match

Águilas
2.10
Lorca FC
0.93

allows per match

Águilas
0.88
Lorca FC
1.00

finishing

Águilas+0.00on par
Lorca FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas ↓

Lorca FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Águilas or draw
78%
Águilas or Lorca FC
74%
Draw or Lorca FC
48%

Winning margin

Águilas wins by 2+
27%
Lorca FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Águilas 1+ goals
79%
Águilas 2+ goals
46%
Águilas 3+ goals
20%
Lorca FC 1+ goals
60%
Lorca FC 2+ goals
23%
Lorca FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Águilas (draw refunded)
70%
Lorca FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

Lorca FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas attack 2.10 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Lorca FC attack 0.93 + Águilas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Águilas scores more
52%
level
26%
Lorca FC scores more
22%

Águilas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Águilas 1–1 Lorca FC

Águilas and Lorca FC drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Rubial in Águilas.