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Águilas vs La Unión Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Águilas
Águilas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
La Unión Atlético
La Unión Atlético
Ramón Árcas 57'
Juan Góngora 44', 22'
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 23Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Águilas51%
×Draw25%
La Unión Atlético24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas
1.60
La Unión Atlético
1.00

Águilas creates 60% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

creates per match

Águilas
2.10
La Unión Atlético
1.11

allows per match

Águilas
0.88
La Unión Atlético
1.11

finishing

Águilas+0.00on par
La Unión Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas ↓

La Unión Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Águilas or draw
76%
Águilas or La Unión Atlético
75%
Draw or La Unión Atlético
49%

Winning margin

Águilas wins by 2+
27%
La Unión Atlético wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Águilas 1+ goals
80%
Águilas 2+ goals
47%
Águilas 3+ goals
22%
La Unión Atlético 1+ goals
63%
La Unión Atlético 2+ goals
26%
La Unión Atlético 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Águilas (draw refunded)
68%
La Unión Atlético (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

La Unión Atlético away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas attack 2.10 + La Unión Atlético defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.60

La Unión Atlético attack 1.11 + Águilas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Águilas scores more
51%
level
25%
La Unión Atlético scores more
24%

Águilas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Juan Góngora
44'
Nico Garnés← Belencoso
44'
Juan Góngora
46'
Dani Díez← Vitolo
46'
Álex Briega← Fran Cortés
57'
Ramón Árcas
61'
Josema Vivancos← David Valdeolivas
63'
Ayala← A. Edmundsson
63'
Adrián Miñarro← Cristo Martín
80'
Peque← Aitor Pons
80'
A. Loussoukou← Ramón Árcas
80'
Adrián Aguirre← Walter Navarro
88'
Isaac Rodriguez← D. López
Águilas
La
Xabi Irureta
Irureta
Mario Hernández
Hernández
S. De Echevarría
Echevarrí
Walter Navarro
▼
Navarro
David Valdeolivas
▼
Valdeoliv
Fran Cortés
▼
Cortés
Monty
Monty
Javi Grillo
Grillo
Vitolo
▼
Vitolo
Tato
Tato
Belencoso
▼
Belencoso
Iván Buigues
Buigues
Juan Góngora
⚽2
Góngora
Dani Pérez
Pérez
A. Edmundsson
▼
Edmundsso
Blas Alonso
Alonso
Ramón Árcas
⚽
▼
Árcas
Víctor Fenoll
Fenoll
Óscar Castro
Castro
Cristo Martín
▼
Martín
Aitor Pons
▼
Pons
D. López
▼
López
Sebas López
Manager: Sebas López
63'▲Ayala←▼A. Edmundsson
63'▲Adrián Miñarro←▼Cristo Martín
80'▲Peque←▼Aitor Pons
80'▲A. Loussoukou←▼Ramón Árcas
88'▲Isaac Rodriguez←▼D. López

Águilas substitutes

AyalaMiñarroPequeLoussoukouRodriguez
Manuel Palomeque
Manager: Manuel Palomeque
44'▲Nico Garnés←▼Belencoso
46'▲Dani Díez←▼Vitolo
46'▲Álex Briega←▼Fran Cortés
61'▲Josema Vivancos←▼David Valdeolivas
80'▲Adrián Aguirre←▼Walter Navarro

La Unión Atlético substitutes

GarnésDíezBriegaVivancosAguirre

Águilas 3 – 0 La Unión Atlético

Águilas beat La Unión Atlético 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 26, 2023.

Goals: Juan Góngora (22', 44'), Ramón Árcas (57').

The match was played at Estadio El Rubial in Águilas.