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Águilas vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Águilas
Águilas
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Palmar
El Palmar
2/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 17Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Águilas58%
×Draw23%
El Palmar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas
1.84
El Palmar
0.96

Águilas creates 92% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 111 away

creates per match

Águilas
2.10
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Águilas
0.88
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Águilas+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Águilas or draw
81%
Águilas or El Palmar
77%
Draw or El Palmar
42%

Winning margin

Águilas wins by 2+
33%
El Palmar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Águilas 1+ goals
84%
Águilas 2+ goals
55%
Águilas 3+ goals
28%
El Palmar 1+ goals
62%
El Palmar 2+ goals
25%
El Palmar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Águilas (draw refunded)
75%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas attack 2.10 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.84

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Águilas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Águilas scores more
58%
level
23%
El Palmar scores more
19%

Águilas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Águilas 5 – 0 El Palmar

Águilas beat El Palmar 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Rubial in Águilas.