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Águilas vs Atlético Pulpileño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Águilas
Águilas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Pulpileño
Atlético Pulpileño
3/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 21Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Águilas48%
×Draw26%
Atlético Pulpileño26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas
1.48
Atlético Pulpileño
1.02

Águilas creates 45% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 93 away

creates per match

Águilas
2.10
Atlético Pulpileño
1.16

allows per match

Águilas
0.88
Atlético Pulpileño
0.85

finishing

Águilas+0.00on par
Atlético Pulpileño+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas ↓

Atlético Pulpileño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Águilas or draw
74%
Águilas or Atlético Pulpileño
74%
Draw or Atlético Pulpileño
52%

Winning margin

Águilas wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Pulpileño wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Águilas 1+ goals
77%
Águilas 2+ goals
43%
Águilas 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Pulpileño 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Pulpileño 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Pulpileño 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Águilas (draw refunded)
65%
Atlético Pulpileño (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

Atlético Pulpileño away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.85 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas attack 2.10 + Atlético Pulpileño defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético Pulpileño attack 1.16 + Águilas defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Águilas scores more
48%
level
26%
Atlético Pulpileño scores more
26%

Águilas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Águilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águilas vs Atlético Pulpileño

Águilas beat Atlético Pulpileño 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Rubial in Águilas.