Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Águilas II vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Águilas II
Águilas II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
12/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Campo de fútbol Muñoz Calero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Águilas II56%
×Draw23%
SFC Minerva20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas II
1.77
SFC Minerva
0.96

Águilas II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

creates per match

Águilas II
1.88
SFC Minerva
1.03

allows per match

Águilas II
0.88
SFC Minerva
1.67

finishing

Águilas II+0.00on par
SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas II ↓

SFC Minerva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Águilas II or draw
80%
Águilas II or SFC Minerva
77%
Draw or SFC Minerva
44%

Winning margin

Águilas II wins by 2+
32%
SFC Minerva wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Águilas II 1+ goals
83%
Águilas II 2+ goals
53%
Águilas II 3+ goals
26%
SFC Minerva 1+ goals
62%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
25%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Águilas II (draw refunded)
73%
SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas II attack 1.88 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + Águilas II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Águilas II scores more
56%
level
23%
SFC Minerva scores more
20%

Águilas II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Águilas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águilas II vs SFC Minerva

SFC Minerva beat Águilas II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Muñoz Calero in Murcia.