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Águilas II vs Olímpico Totana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Águilas II
Águilas II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
2/28/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 24Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Águilas II53%
×Draw25%
Olímpico Totana22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas II
1.58
Olímpico Totana
0.93

Águilas II creates 70% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 50 away

creates per match

Águilas II
1.88
Olímpico Totana
0.98

allows per match

Águilas II
0.88
Olímpico Totana
1.28

finishing

Águilas II+0.00on par
Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas II ↓

Olímpico Totana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Águilas II or draw
78%
Águilas II or Olímpico Totana
75%
Draw or Olímpico Totana
47%

Winning margin

Águilas II wins by 2+
28%
Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Águilas II 1+ goals
79%
Águilas II 2+ goals
47%
Águilas II 3+ goals
21%
Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
61%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
24%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Águilas II (draw refunded)
70%
Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Olímpico Totana away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas II attack 1.88 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.58

Olímpico Totana attack 0.98 + Águilas II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Águilas II scores more
53%
level
25%
Olímpico Totana scores more
22%

Águilas II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Águilas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Águilas II vs Olímpico Totana

Águilas II and Olímpico Totana drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Rubial in Águilas.