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Águilas II vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Águilas II
Águilas II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
El Palmar
El Palmar
4/25/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Estadio El Rubial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Águilas II55%
×Draw24%
El Palmar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas II
1.73
El Palmar
0.96

Águilas II creates 80% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Águilas II
1.88
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Águilas II
0.88
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Águilas II+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas II ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Águilas II or draw
79%
Águilas II or El Palmar
76%
Draw or El Palmar
45%

Winning margin

Águilas II wins by 2+
31%
El Palmar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Águilas II 1+ goals
82%
Águilas II 2+ goals
52%
Águilas II 3+ goals
25%
El Palmar 1+ goals
62%
El Palmar 2+ goals
25%
El Palmar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Águilas II (draw refunded)
73%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas II attack 1.88 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Águilas II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Águilas II scores more
55%
level
24%
El Palmar scores more
21%

Águilas II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Águilas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Águilas II 2–1 El Palmar

Águilas II beat El Palmar 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Rubial in Águilas.