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Águilas Doradas vs Santa Fe — Primera A 2025

Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
Preview
21:05
Santa Fe
Santa Fe
7/26/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Cincuentenario
Big match
38%
Santa Fe
model favours
35%27%38%

Santa Fe are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Águilas Doradas35%
×Draw27%
Santa Fe38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas Doradas
1.18
Santa Fe
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 42 away

creates per match

Águilas Doradas
1.23
Santa Fe
1.29

allows per match

Águilas Doradas
1.20
Santa Fe
1.12

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par
Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Santa Fe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw
62%
Águilas Doradas or Santa Fe
73%
Draw or Santa Fe
65%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
14%
Santa Fe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
69%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
33%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
12%
Santa Fe 1+ goals
71%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
36%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
48%
Santa Fe (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.23 + Santa Fe defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Santa Fe attack 1.29 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more
35%
level
27%
Santa Fe scores more
38%

Santa Fe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Santa Fe score first in only 25% of matches
  • Águilas Doradas win just 15% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Águilas Doradas play Defensively solid, Santa Fe Attack-heavy
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 0.8 goals
  • Águilas Doradas sit 16, Santa Fe 4 in the table
  • Águilas Doradas fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Águilas Doradas
Defensively solid
Santa Fe
Attack-heavy
48%Possession54%
76%Pass accuracy78%
10.4ShotsBiggest gap14.4
1.21xG1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Águilas DoradasSanta Fe

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Águilas Doradas
5
Draws
0
Santa Fe
Avg goals: 0.8BTTS: 40%
1–10–00–00–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Doradas
DDWDW
Fe
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Águilas Doradas vs Santa Fe — Match Preview

Águilas Doradas face Santa Fe on July 26, 2026 in this Primera A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Águilas Doradas host Santa Fe at Estadio Cincuentenario.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.