Águilas Doradas 1–1 Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Águilas Doradas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Fe

A. Vuletich 57' (pen)

D. Torres 83'

3/25/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Águilas Doradas34%

×Draw28%

Santa Fe38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.18

Águilas Doradas

1.11

Santa Fe

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 66 away

1.20

creates per match

1.14

1.22

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.20

Santa Fe

1.14

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.22

Santa Fe

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

62%

Águilas Doradas or Santa Fe

72%

Draw or Santa Fe

66%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

14%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

67%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

30%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

10%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

69%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

33%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

48%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 49 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.20 + Santa Fe defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Santa Fe attack 1.14 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

34%

level

28%

Santa Fe scores more

38%

Santa Fe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. Rodallega

Santa Fe · F

7.5

Match Events

9'

J. Quinones

19'

D. Torres

43'

J. Torres← J. Zuluaga

46'

S. Rodríguez← J. Quiñónes

46'

A. Estacio← J. Caballero

46'

M. Puerta← D. Lozano

57'

A. VuletichPenalty

66'

J. González← Y. Velásquez

66'

E. Perlaza← J. Melendez

71'

E. Perlaza

76'

É. Correa← A. Rodríguez

76'

D. Moreno← J. Millán

83'

D. Torres↳ E. Perlaza

90+6'

A. Vuletich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÁguilasSanta

Overview

54%Possession46%

3Total Shots17

5Corners11

12Fouls12

Shots

3Total Shots17

1On Target6

2Off Target5

0Blocked6

2Inside Box9

1Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

330Total Passes270

242Accurate Passes185

73%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2